## R in Finance 2017

Review of R in Finance 2017 conference

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Thu 18 May 2017
by Steven E. Pav

I like the calendar 'heatmap' plots of commits you can see on github user pages, and wanted to play around with some. Of course, if I just wanted to make some plots, I could have just googled around, and then followed this recipe, or maybe used the rChartsCalmap package. Instead I set out, as an exercise, to make my own using ggplot2.

For data, I am using the daily GHCND observations data for station `USC00047880`

, which is
located in the San Rafael, CA, Civic Center. I downloaded this data as part of a project
to join weather data to campground data (yes, it's been done before), directly from
the NOAA FTP site, then read the fixed width
file. I then processed the data, subselected to 2016 and beyond, and converted the units.
I am left with a dataframe of dates, the element name, and the value, which is a temperature
in Celsius. The first ten values I show here:

date | element | value |
---|---|---|

2016-01-01 | TMAX | 9.4 |

2016-01-01 | TMIN | 0.0 |

2016-01-02 | TMAX | 10.0 |

2016-01-02 | TMIN | 3.9 |

2016-01-03 | TMAX | 11.7 |

2016-01-03 | TMIN | 6.7 |

2016-01-04 | TMAX | 12.8 |

2016-01-04 | TMIN | 6.7 |

2016-01-05 | TMAX | 12.8 |

2016-01-05 | TMIN | 8.3 |

Here is the code to produce the heatmap itself. I first use the `date`

field
to compute the x axis labels and locations: the dates are converted essentially
to 'Julian' days since January 4, 1970 (a Sunday), then divided by seven to
get a 'Julian' week number. The week number containing the tenth of the month is
then set as the location of the month name in the x axis labels. I add years to
the January labels.

I then compute the Julian week number and day number of the week. I create a variable which alternates between …

read more Thu 04 May 2017
by Steven E. Pav

I still had some nagging thoughts after my recent examination of the distribution of Elo. In that blog post, I recognized that a higher probability of a draw would lead to tighter standard error around the true 'ability' of a player, as estimated by an Elo ranking. Without any data, I punted on what that probability should be. So I decided to look at some real data.

I started working in a risk role about a year ago. Compared to my
previous gig, there is a much greater focus on discrete event
modeling than on continuous outcomes. Logistic regression and
survival analysis are the tools of the trade. However,
financial risk modeling is more complex than the textbook
presentation of these methods. As is chess. A loan holder might
go bankrupt, stop paying, die, *etc.* Similarly, a chess player
might win, lose or draw.

There are two main ways of approaching multiple outcome discrete
models that leverage the simpler binary models: the *competing hazards*
view, and the *sequential hazards* view. Briefly, risk under
competing hazards would be like traversing the Fire Swamp: at any time,
the spurting flames, the lightning sand or the rodents of unusual
size might harm you. The risks all come at you at once.
An example of a sequential hazard is undergoing
surgery: you might die in surgery, and if you survive you might incur
an infection and die of complications; the risks present themselves
conditional on surviving other risks. (Both of these
views are mostly just conveniences, and real risks are never so
neatly defined.)

Returning to chess, I will consider sequential hazards. Assume two players, and let the difference in true abilities between them be denoted \(\Delta a\). As with Elo, we want the difference in abilities is such that the odds that the …

read more Sat 15 April 2017
by Steven E. Pav

I have been thinking about Elo ratings recently, after
analyzing my tactics ratings. I have a lot of
questions about Elo: is it really predictive of performance? why don't we
calibrate Elo to a quantitative strategy? can we really compare players
across different eras? why not use an extended Kalman Filter instead of
Elo? *etc.* One question I had which I consider here is, "what is the
standard error of Elo?"

Consider two players. Let the difference in true abilities between them be denoted \(\Delta a\), and let the difference in their Elo ratings be \(\Delta r\). The difference in abilities is such that the odds that the first player wins a match between them is \(10^{\Delta a / 400}\). Note that the raw abilities and ratings will not be used here, only the differences, since they are only defined up to an arbitrary additive offset.

When the two play a game, both their scores are updated according to the outcome. Let \(z\) be the outcome of the match from the point of view of the first player. That is \(z=1\) if the first player wins, \(0\) if they lose, and \(1/2\) in the case of a draw. We update their Elo ratings by

$$
\Delta r \Leftarrow \Delta r + 2 k \left(z - g\left(\Delta r\right) \right),
$$

where \(k\) is the \(k\)-factor (typically between 10 and 40), and \(g\) gives the expected value of the outcome based on the difference in ratings, with

$$
g(x) = \frac{10^{x/400}}{1 + 10^{x/400}}.
$$

Because we add and subtract the same update to both players' ratings, the difference between them gets twice that update, thus the \(2\).

Let \(\epsilon\) be the error in the ratings: \(\Delta r = \Delta a + \epsilon\). Then the error updates as

$$
\epsilon …

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